Europe’s never-ending debt saga has investors girding for volatile, unsteady currency markets for years to come.
This debt crisis has also boosted bullish bets on the world’s safe havens—the U.S. dollar and yen — well into the next 24 months in the options market, reflecting fears that problems in the euro zone could linger for years.

“There’s enough uncertainty surrounding Europe and the global economic picture that higher volatility will likely become a feature of this market for some time. And it’s more or less across the board,” said Aroop Chatterjee, senior currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York.

This is the second time in four years that the options market has signaled such a high level of anxiety. Right after U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, currency option prices options spiked as investors paid a high premium for protection against the market’s big moves.

Now the same scenario is playing out. And it’s anyone’s guess as to when it ends.

Implied volatility on one-month euro/dollar options surged to 18.35 percent on Monday—the highest in at least 2 1/2 years. That 18 percent figure is equivalent to expectations for a roughly 5.2 percent move in the euro over the next 30 days, options strategists said.

Implied volatility, or “vol,” is a measure of the options market’s expectations of price movements.

Tuesday’s speculation about plans to boost the euro-zone bailout fund did little to ease fears that the fiscal crisis could drag on, especially after Germany and Spain poured cold water on the idea.

Euro vols did retreat on Tuesday, but have generally traded above the 50-day moving average since early September.

One- to two-year euro/dollar vols were also elevated at nearly 17 percent, generally an indication of stress.

Heightened volatility in the one- to two-year time frame is unusual, analysts said. Normally, investors tend to sell long-term volatility even as short-term volatility spikes.

The fact that volatility is heightened down the road suggests worry that markets will remain unsettled.

“You have basically entered a period where front-end vols have really gone up and the long end has sort of tracked the front end, which is a function of risk aversion,” said Aditya Bagaria, FX options strategist at Credit Suisse in London.

Emerging Markets Also See Worry

In a clear sign that European contagion is spooking investors, option hedges against some of the best-performing emerging market currencies have soared as well.

The rise in volatility there underscores the vulnerability of these assets in times of stress despite their strong economic fundamentals. Already, these markets are experiencing capital outflows, similar to 2008.

Vols on one-month U.S. dollar/Mexican peso pair exploded to 28.4 percent on Friday, a roughly 2 1/2 year high from as low as 8 percent in July.

Traders said one-week Mexican vols had traded as high as 45 percent.

The peso’s one-month vols, though, slipped to 24.8 percent on Tuesday, but the increase in volatility is consistent with the peso’s 8 percent drop against the dollar this year.

Vols in the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira and the South African rand have also surged, just as they did three years ago.

“Investors have realized that, if more than half of the world is to have (stalling) growth, emerging markets will not likely have an easy time,” said Stephen Jen, managing partner at hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners in London.

“I think (emerging market weakness) will continue, even if large interventions slow down the pace of the prospective dollar rally. Too many long-term real money investors are still in these long-EM trades for the dollar rally to be over.”

Risk Reversal Skews
Further signs of stress are evident in risk reversals, a key indicator of risk sentiment in the options market. Risk reversals in major currencies are all showing a strong bias to hold U.S. dollars — still considered a bet on safety.

One-month Australian dollar/U.S. dollar risk reversals, for instance, showed a “put” bias of -7.60 vols on Monday, the most extreme skew since at least 2007, but slipped on Tuesday. In general, put options suggest more investors are betting on a decline in the Aussie than a rise. The higher the number, the more bearish investors are on the currency.

Risk reversal skews favoring the greenback are further supported by positioning among hedge funds, such as Quaesta Capital in Zurich, Switzerland, which has increased long U.S. dollar positions in the last week in its $3 billion currency fund of funds.

Extreme long positioning in the Australian dollar also contributed to the negative bias. Real money accounts, Japanese retail investors and speculators are still clinging to Aussie net longs, though short-term investors are paring positions.

Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters.

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Euro/dollar slid to a 7 month low. Greece continues to float between the next tranche of aid to the trenches. Will the fate of this debt hit country be known this week? Apart from Greece, the calendar is very busy and we will get hints on a possible rate cut by the ECB. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The big blow to the euro and to most currencies came from Ben Bernanke. The Fed announced “Operation Twist” but provided downbeat language on the economy and no further easing steps such as QE3. The impact of Bernanke on financial markets will likely accompany us for many months to come.

German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. This survey from Europe’s No. 1 think tank always rocks the euro. It usually exceeds expectations and rises, but last month was different, with a drop to 108.7 points. This hurt the euro. Another slide to 107 points is expected now.
GfK German Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 6:00. This survey of 2000 consumers has been very stable in recent months, showing that German consumers are still doing well. A tick down from last month’s 5.2 points is expected now.
M3 Money Supply: Tuesday, 8:00. More money in circulation means more activity and more potential inflation. This is one of the factors that the ECB takes into consideration. The pace of expansion has slowed down to 2% last month. A similar number is likely now.
German CPI: Wednesday. This is the preliminary release, and is published separated for each German state. After remaining unchanged last month, this leading inflation indicator will likely show small drop in prices now, helping the ECB to lower the rates.
German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. This indicator is the best expression of the German strength. While it fell below expectations in recent months, this figure has still shown a steady drop in unemployment. A marginally bigger drop than last month’s -8K number is estimated now.
German Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00. After a big jump two months ago, no correction was seen, and retail sales continued rising, by 0.3%. Germany will likely see a small dip in volume now: 0.4%.
French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45. Europe’s second largest economy will publish consumer spending numbers for two months. After a few straight months of drops in spending, French consumers upped their spending two months ago by 1.2%. The figures that will be published now might offset each other, but the general direction will likely be more squeeze.
CPI Flash Estimate: Friday, 9:00. Inflation in the euro area has stabilized at a pace of 2.5%, lower than in previous months. Inflation is already less of a worry to the ECB, which changed its recent forecasts to balanced inflation and downside risks to growth. Lower inflation is expected now, but it will probably remain above the 2% target.
Unemployment Rate: Friday,9:00. The unemployment rate in the euro-zone has edged up to 10% after many months at 9.9%. The same depressing figure is expected now. Note that there is a big gap between countries like Spain, with more than 20% unemployment, and countries in the north with single digit figures.
* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

€/$ began the week with a big Sunday gap. When it finally closed the gap at around 1.3788 (discussed last week), the big plunge began. The pair fell as low as 1.3385 before consolidating.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from a lower line this week. 1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges. The pair got quite close to it a few weeks, and it remains strong resistance in the horizon. The swing low of 1.3838 held the pair and after EUR/USD fell to a six month low was a distinct line separating ranges during September.

1.3750 managed to cap the pair on a recovery attempt and is minor resistance. The round number of 1.37 is another minor resistance line at the moment. It served as resistance early in the year.

The low of 1.3630 seen in earlier is already more important resistance. 1.3550 provided support early in September and then switched to resistance after the fall.

The round number of 1.35 was a trough early in September remains a pivotal line. Very serious support is at 1.3430. This is a modification of the 1.3440 line, after the break. It separated ranges in a very clear way many times in the past, making it of very high importance.

The bottom at 1.3385 made just now is also of importance, as a break below this line will be a fresh 8 month low. Minor support is at 1.3322, which was a resistance line in the past.

More important resistance is at 1.3250 which held the pair early in the year. It’s followed by 1.3180 which worked as significant support in December 2010 and is now weak.

A key line before the round number of 1.30 is support at 1.3080. Towards the end of 2010, it prevented deeper falls.

The ultimate trough of 2011 at 1.2873.

I am bearish on EUR/USD.

This was a week to forget for stock markets, but certainly a week to remember for dollar bulls, as the dollar returned to strength last seen 7 months ago. German Ifo Business Climate, US housing data and Unemployment are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the upcoming market-movers.

Last week Bernanke announced $400 Billion Twist to bail out the US economy from its bad condition by buying $400 billion long term securities of six to 30 years and sell them in three years. The Fed believes this would encourage mortgage refinancing drawing investors to the real estate market. Will this move help the struggling economy? It currently sent stocks, commodities and most currencies plunging against the dollar.

Let’s Start

Euro-Zone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Things took a turn for the worse amid a slowdown in the US economy and the financial crisis in the Euro-zone, German business confidence plunged to 108.7 in August, the worst drop since 2008, following 112.9 in the previous month. This reading was well below analysts estimations of 111.2 indicating a serious slowdown in recovery. A further decrease to 107.3 is expected.
US New Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. Sales of newU.S. homes dropped more than expected in July reaching 298,000 following 300,000 in June. Chip existing homes nearly diminish the feasibility of building new homes. The figure is expected to drop to 297,000.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:30. Consumers’ confidence in August slid 15 points to the lowest level since April 2009 reaching 44.5 after 59.2 in July. This drastic fall reflects Americans concerns over the weak job market conditions and rising prices of food and clothing decreasing consumer spending. A small increase to 46.8 is predicted.
US Core Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Orders for long-lastingU.S. products excluding transportation, increased by 0.7% in July while Durable goods orders increased by 4.0%. This rise came after 0.6% increase in Core orders and 1.3% decrease in Durable goods orders. A smaller increase of 0.3% is forecasted.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment dropped less than predicted to 423,000 while a decline to 419,000 was estimated. This is the fifth week of increases indicating a mounting number of dismissals in a slowing economy.
US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Sales of existingU.S. homes dropped in July by 1.3% from a 2.4% gain in June while 0.8% fall was expected. This signifies the slowdown in the housing sector. Nevertheless economists are optimistic claiming the market will offer favorable conditions for potential buyers. A decrease of -1.9% is forecasted.
Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy contracted 0.4% in the second quarter after Japan’s earthquake and tsunami but on a monthly base GDP increased by 0.2% in June following a 0.3% drop in May. An increase of 0.3% is expected now.
*All times are GMT.

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Think about this: if you could BUY the Freedom of not having to worry about money anymore, would you PAY $500.00 for it? Of course you would! (Probably) And no! I’m not Santa Claus, but I’m going to give you something else. I’ll give you the system to make those insane profits. You know – I’m going to teach you how to fish rather than just giving you the fish! And THAT is worth more than just a fish!

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I got into an argument with an investor friend of mine the other day over buying gold where can you find gold as an investment. He couldn’t see the value in it, and I was quite surprised at his attitude.

“What can you do with it?” he asked. “You can’t take it down to McDonald’s, for example, and shave off a few pieces and buy a hamburger. You can’t trade with it. You can’t do ANYTHING with it.”

His contention was that it really had no value…at least I THINK that was his argument.

Quite frankly, I’ve never heard anybody take this kind of stance before. Gold gold rates has been the basis of all trade, in all civilizations, since the dawn of time. The luster of gold, its seemingly indestructible and unchangeable nature, has grabbed the heart of Man and evoked deep feelings throughout history.

The dollar was backed in gold up until 1933 when Franklin Delano Roosevelt took America off the Gold Standard and set the stage for inflation. When the dollar was tied into a given quantity of gold, its value was pretty much “set in stone”, so to speak, but once a dollar bill could no longer be pegged to gold its value could change…

So, why own gold buy gold? I mean not as a contract, a futures commodity–but the metal itself?

Of all the Transition Metals, gold is certainly the most greatly desired. Since the beginning of recorded history, gold has been in use in many different works of art, coinage, and, of course, jewelry. Occurring as grains in rocks and in alluvial deposits, gold is shiny, soft, and dense. It is known to be a ductile and malleable as the pure metal. Probably its lustrous deep yellow color, more than anything else, has captured the heart and imagination…sometimes to the destruction of many.

Of all its physical properties, its density (19.30 g.cm-3), Melting Point: 1064.18°C, 1947.52°F, 1337.33°K, Boiling Point: 2856°C, 5173°F, 3129°K., as well as its lack of chemical reactivity (it does not tarnish or oxidize), lend it the kind of stability and aura of permanence that has built civilizations. Gold is chemically unaffected by air or moisture.

The term “gold” was derived from “geolu”, an Old English Anglo-Saxon word which means “yellow”. Its symbol “Au”, on the other hand, originated from “aurum”, the Latin word for “gold”. Gold may have been “discovered” in the year 1848 in California, but History tells us that this precious metal had already been used extensively by the ancient Egyptians, Romans, Greeks, Chinese, and South Americans for millenia.

Throughout history, gold has served as a measure of value and a symbol of wealth. It is one of the coinage metals (along with silver and copper). It is used, customarily and legally, as a means of payment or a medium of exchange that crosses the boundaries of all nations (and times, for that matter). Gram and troy weight are the units of measurement used for gold. To indicate the amount of gold present in, say, a piece of jewelry, the term “carat” is used. A necklace, for instance, that is 24 carats means that it is made of pure gold.

While the price of gold is determined through trading in the derivatives and gold markets, its daily benchmark price is provided in a procedure called the London Gold Fix in which its price is determined each business day on the London market. The fixing is done twice – once in the morning and another in the afternoon. The latter actually was introduced about 49 years after the procedure itself came into being, as a means of providing a price when US markets are open. This gold-price fixing procedure is done by the five members of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd., namely The Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays Capital, Deutsche Bank AG London, HSBC, and Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking.

Ok, there you have it. But the question remains: Why own gold — the metal itself, I mean? Well, here’s the argument I used with my friend:

Let’s say you are a Southern plantation owner in the pre-Civil War South. You own an enormous mansion, vast land holdings, livestock, cotton fields, and, of course slaves. But, let’s say you also own a bag of gold coins, which you buried in a secret hideaway, say near an unusual looking rock beside a river that flows through your property. Then the Civil War destroys everything. Your Confederate money is no good, your mansion is destroyed, carpetbaggers have taken the rest. What do you have left?

Answer: that bag of gold which…

Which you dig up and trade for Union dollars and go “back into business” again.

That’s the value of gold. Every economy, every nation throughout history has recognized its value. Currencies become worthless. Governments fall, and are replaced. But all recognize the value of gold. Gold is what you want to own in times of instability.

“Well,” my buddy said when he saw the logic of that argument, “the problem with people who buy and bury gold is that other people follow them, kill them and steal it.” He said this with a humorous glint in his eye, not wishing to lose the argument. But he did have a point.

Such is our fascination with gold, that draws out the worst…and best, from the heart of Man.

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The most widely used and relatively simple method of graphical analysis of the prices is bar chart. Bar chart reflects changes in prices over a specified period of time.

However, despite of the fact that this graph represents all four rates, it is not without of drawbacks. During the actual time period the price could vary by up sticks uneven: in some price intervals trading volumes are significantly greater than in others.

Therefore, its thickness should not be uniform. Ideally, it should be thicker where the relevant price was the highest number of transactions, and thinner where the transactions were very few. Such non-uniform bar would contain more information and a uniform bar is eroded history of price changes. But the use of non-uniform thickness will make the graph difficult for the visual analysis.

In addition, the visual perception of bar-graphs depends strongly on the density of the graph and the length of the visible period. Extended schedule when there is a long distance between the bars has less visual information, and covers a smaller time period.

Tighter schedule, when bars are located close to each other, will give a clearer “picture” and will represent a longer period of time. Traders want to see the forecast for the longer period of time because it is very important to have not only the short time forecast but also long time forecasts.

It must be remembered that the bar is silent and says nothing about how during the period of time prices varied. In principle, a uniform motion from one extreme point to another and some fluctuation along the entire length of bars.

Therefore, the latter may contain a lot of statistical noise. For example, if the maximum value was reached very quickly and at low volumes, but most transactions were made at the bottom, it is clear that this situation is not seen on the schedule.

Nevertheless, the fact that the price reaches its peak, it is important for the market because the participants remember such extreme prices and in the future they are guided by them. Prices can vary over a period of time, which shows a bar. The nature of price changes in each case is quite different.

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