MDM Partners reaches 2.26% Net Profit for it’s sixth month of operation.

For more details do not hesitate to ask our Team…

FX Signals by MDM Partners

by Todor Nikolov – FX Analyst at MDM Partners

Today, we do not expect  important financial news in the United Kingdom.

In its forthcoming move, if successful £ should overcome resistance zone at 1.4435-1.4455, the next rsistance to achieve is close to the levels of 1.4480-1.4500. If successful, the upturn will continue to 1.4525-1.4550.

If the fall breaks below the support at 1.4410-1.4380, it will go to the next support zone at around 1.4360-1.4335. In a breakthrough, downward movement will continue towards 1.4310-1.4275. Analyzing Moving Average, the price is below the indicator, which is a sign for sale.

Entry Point: 1.4420
Target: 1.4300
Stop-loss: 1.4490

by STEPHEN GANDEL

FX Signals by MDM Partners

It’s a long held mantra on Wall Street to buy straw hats in winter. The notion is that you should buy the shares of a company when no body wants them, or when things look their worst. Buy at the low. So based on that logic here’s the question: Is BP’s stock a buy?

Did the markets really think the top kill was going to work? Evidently so — BP shares fell 15% today, to $36.52. But before we declare this the end of BP, let’s put this in perspective: the shares traded as low as $34.06 in March 2009. And over the last three years, BP is down 46%, compared to 30% for the S&P 500 (and Exxon Mobil) and 93% for Citigroup.

The most likely fate for BP at this point isn’t death but rather takeover. There’s been a lot of speculation along those lines, and with BP’s leadership looking even weaker than its stock price, the rest of Big Oil is surely salivating at the prospect of picking BP up without much difficulty.

I don’t think the acquirer would be Exxon. Other than that I do think another oil company could come in and pick up BP assets effectively erasing the reputational risk and making those assets worth a lot more.

I don’t think the acquirer would be Exxon. Other than that I do think another oil company could come in and pick up BP assets effectively erasing the reputational risk and making those assets worth a lot more.

UPDATE: The New York Post has more today on why analysts think BP is a buy:

A number of top oil analysts see BP as a summer bargain, and predict cash flows could jump as much as 30 percent next year. Analysts said that once engineers get a grasp on their new plan to tame the gushing oil, investors could see a quick pop in the share prices of all three oil companies involved in the mess. If the latest fix shows signs of working, “we believe it’s likely that the shares of BP will see a near term move higher,” analyst Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James said in his bullish report yesterday on BP. Also, I missed this earlier, but JP Morgan’s analyst also weighed in on BP pointing to the size of what they think the stock buying opportunity could be:

Struggle to rationalize BP’s extreme share price reaction – JPM says they had originally assumed a total containment cost of $7.2bn (100%, based on 120 days at $60m per day). So far, the costs have averaged $24m per day given 42 days since the tragic loss of well control occurred. BP’s 65% share of their original cost estimate is approximately $5bn including the cost of the two relief wells. The difference between this figure and the relative loss of market value ($37bn) is around $32bn. The firm struggles to believe that litigation settlements, claims payments and punitive damages will rise anywhere close to rationalize the difference ($32bn).

How low will the yield on Treasury bonds go? The new consensus is that yields could continue to drop throughout the summer. I have a story up today on Time.com about the bull market in Treasury bonds. The Wall Street Journal is also on Treasury bonds this morning with a round up of where the different investment banks believe yields are headed. And there is another interesting move in the Treasury market today. For the past few weeks, Treasuries have been moving in the opposite direction of stocks. So the assumption has been that when stocks rebound, Treasury prices will fall. Not today. Stocks are up, and bonds are up. Long live the Treasury rally.

by Reshma Kapadia

Few people ever want to be stuck in the middle. But in the bond world, that may be the perfect place to be, even if the secret of this strategy is already out.

So-called intermediate-term bonds, which mature in more than a few years but in less than 10 years, have been hot for over a year now. Indeed, funds that include the Jan Brady of bonds have attracted more than $100 billion in new money since the beginning of 2009, more than any other type of bond fund.
And it’s easy to see why: The bonds typically have higher yields than short-term bonds, and some analysts say their prices won’t fall as dramatically as those of long-term bonds if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to head off inflation. What’s more, some longtime bond investors are turning their attention to intermediate bonds issued by companies whose finances aren’t the best. Their ratings of B or BB are just below investment grade, but the yields are certainly eye-popping: as high as 9.25 percent.
That, of course, comes with some risk. The high-yield bond market has taken a beating recently as many investors, spooked by the credit problems in Europe, have run away from any investment they consider risky. But an improving economy can shore up an issuing firm’s balance sheet, reducing default risk and pushing bond prices higher, says Kathleen Gaffney, comanager of the top-performing Loomis Sayles Bond fund. They can be the “crème de la crud,” says Zane Brown, fixed-income strategist for Lord Abbett, which manages $94 billion for clients.

To be sure, analysts say investors who need money fast should probably stay away from all intermediate bonds. Prices can swing dramatically; junk bond prices, as a group, fell more than 4 percent in May alone. And anyone expecting a repeat of the big gains bonds had in 2009 will likely be disappointed. Companies and governments also have billions in debt coming due in the next couple of years, and any difficulty in refinancing it or economic stumbles could send prices of bonds and bond funds tumbling.
But if the U.S. economy continues to recover, three- to seven-year bonds of slightly lower credit quality could be a decent place to invest for a while. “With a slower recovery, you might as well pick up some returns in the meantime,” says Anne Briglia, senior fixed-income strategist at UBS Wealth Management.

The Middle of the Bond Road

Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX)
The fund has a contrarian streak, owning fewer Treasury bonds and more corporate bonds than its peers, with an average duration of about four years. The fund’s five-year average return beat 85 percent of peers.

MFS Bond (MFBFX)
Almost half of this fund’s portfolio is in BBB bonds, and a quarter of its holdings are higher-quality high-yield bonds. One downside: a 4.75 percent sales charge if you buy the fund directly from the company.

FX Signals by MDM Partners

by Daniel James Hayden IV

Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) on Thursday morning released financial results that easily beat Wall Street expectations.

Tiffany & Co reported that its 1st quarter net earningsnet earnings more than doubled to $64.4 million, or 50 cents50 cents per share, up from $24.3 million, or 20 cents per share, a year earlier.

Tiffany & Co also reported that net salesnet sales climbed 22% to $633.6 million, up from $517.6 million.

A poll of analysts conducted by Thomson ReutersThomson Reuters showed an average Wall Street estimate of expected earnings of 37 cents per share.

Tiffany & Co forecast full-year 2010 net earnings from continuing operations of $2.55 to $2.60 per share, on a sales increase of 11%.

MDM Partners reaches 6.41% Gross Profit for it’s second month of operation.

For more details do not hesitate to ask our Team…

FX Signals by MDM Partners

by MDM Partners

MDM Partners has a May long call option in SDS and gained almost 300% from it’s bet. The german people vote against the greek bailout, now that’s all in quesiton again. Remember 2008 when hedge funds were liquidating their positions to raise cash? It was always sell on the rally, so that they could get a better price. Same thing happened on friday. Same thing will happen on Monday. Plus you have the mutual funds coming in with the selling pressure.

Mutual funds had the lowest % of cash in decades at around 3-4%…the only buyers this will will be the PPT and day traders should trying to get the 10% bounce from QCOM.

Stay in touch with our latest news on the financial markets and you may flow with current wave like us…

by MDM Partners

Shares of TICC Capital (NASDAQ:TICC) traded near a new 52-week high yesterday, touching a price of $7.25. Approximately 155,900 shares traded hands yesterday vs. average 30-day volume of 117,000 shares.

TICC Capital closed at $7.25. MDM Partners will be monitoring shares of TICC to see if it can push through this barrier.

MDM Partners is bullish on shares of TICC Capital and alert was issued to buy May call with strike $7.50. TICC Schedules First Quarter 2010 Earnings Release and Conference Call for May 6, 2010.

by The Sunday Times

Investors are moving into betting as they seek ever more innovative ways to diversify their portfolios.

Last week saw the launch of the first regulated fund that allows you to benefit from the outcome of sports events such as football, tennis and rugby.

The Galileo fund, managed by the UK-based Centaur Group, allows individuals with at least €100,000 (£89,000) to spend to gain what the backers claim are uncorrelated “economy-proof” returns by trading on sports betting exchanges.

It follows the announcement of a service that tracks the Hollywood Stock Exchange, where movie-lovers can make (and lose) money by placing bets on a film’s potential success. It is managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, one of New York’s biggest brokers.

Betting exchanges, which have traditionally allowed betting on the outcome of sports events, are seeing a record level of interest in politics. Mike Robb at Betfair said: “The prospect of a hung parliament has added to the level of interest. There is now more variety in the political betting arena than in sports betting. This year we have about 1,300 political bets, compared with about 50 normally.”

They include everything from what colour tie Gordon Brown will wear on election night to which candidates will lose their deposits. In the 2005 election, about £7m of political bets were placed. So far this year, £5m have been placed — and that’s before the election has even been called.

For the first time, Betfair will allow customers to bet on the outcome in every constituency in Britain . Traditional bookies, such as William Hill, are offering the same service.

It slashed the odds on Vince Cable delivering the next budget from 12-1 to 7-1, after the televised debate between the potential chancellors on Monday. Osborne was still 2-5 favourite, with Alistair Darling at 8-1.

Here we explain how investment betting works.

THE SPORTS FUND

Centaur’s Galileo fund will seek to find statistical anomalies in betting exchanges, such as Betfair, Betdaq and Sporting Index, to make a profit.

A betting exchange allows individuals to bet on the outcome of an event. The odds are set by individuals and not a bookmaker. It means that in some cases, the odds may not reflect the probability of that event occurring, based on facts.

Tony Woodhams at Centaur said: “The odds set on Andy Murray before Wimbledon are almost always wrong. People vote with their hearts and not their heads. Say the odds of Murray winning are 35% on betting exchanges. If our calculations show the real odds are about 25%, this is where we seek to make profit.”

Analysts use 10 years of sports data to estimate odds. These are updated “every second” and factor in things such as injuries and the weather.

The fund invests in eight core sports. No single one will take up more than 20% of the fund, though on average no more than 3% will be allocated.

Woodhams said the sports markets are not related to other asset classes, such as shares or property. “It’s an economy-proof environment,” he said.

However, financial advisers urge caution. Adrian Lowcock of Bestinvest said: “Sports betting should not be viewed as an investment. The risks are much greater and it is much more volatile.”

Centaur has been in operation for 10 years and has been applying its strategy to five unregulated funds. It says its average annual return is about 40%. Profits made are taxable, even though profits made through gambling are generally tax-free.

Money is held in a Credit Suisse account and the fund is audited by Deloitte. It is based in Gibraltar and regulated by the Financial Services Commission there — the equivalent of the Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog.

Investments do not fall under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, which covers you for up to £48,000 if the firm holding your money fails. Instead, the Galileo fund is covered by Gibraltar’s equivalent scheme which protects only €20,000.

The minimum initial investment is €100,000. Any additional investment must be the equivalent of at least €25,000. Fees include a 3% annual management charge and 30% of profits above a certain threshold. You also pay up to 5% if you leave within five years.

BETTING EXCHANGES

If you do not have €100,000 to invest, you could take a punt through betting exchanges. The largest by far is Betfair, which accounts for about 90% of the market.

Though it is best known for sports betting, a growing number of bets are being placed on political outcomes.

A betting exchange is different from traditional bookies such as William Hill or Ladbrokes. Instead of betting against odds set by the house, with a profit margin built in, the exchange brings together people with opposite views about a particular outcome, and individuals set the odds. The exchange takes a margin from winnings.

For example, last week someone made a bet at 12-1 that Labour would win the general election with a majority. It means that for every £1 they bet, they would get back £12 if it turns out they are right. Betfair matches that bet with someone who has the opposite view, who puts in £12 and gets £1 back if Labour doesn’t win with a majority.

Betfair holds the cash for both parties and pays the total, £13, to the winner. However, it also takes a small margin on the winnings so the total return will be less.

First-time players pay 5%, but the rate falls to 2% as you become a more frequent user.

Betfair currently has odds of a Conservative majority at 8-11, a hung parliament is 15-8 and a Labour majority 12-1. Gains made from betting are tax-free.

BETTING ON FILMS

Last month saw the launch of the Cantor Exchange, which allows you to profit from a film’s box office performance.

It is based in America and follows the Hollywood Stock Exchange — a virtual exchange that tracks the performance of Hollywood films at the box office.

The exchange goes live on April 20, subject to approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It will be called DBOR (Domestic Box Office Receipts) Movie Futures.

The launch is aimed at Americans, but Cantor exchange said there would be nothing to stop UK investors taking part.

The minimum amount you can put in depends on an expected profit target. Cantor Exchange said: “Say you want to invest in the new film Clash of the Titans. It is hoped the film will make about $200m (£130m). The minimum amount you can put in will therefore be $200. If the film does better than projected, you make money. If it makes less, you lose money.

“If you had made a bet on Avatar, which did much better than expected, you would have been in profit.”

If you think a film will do less well than expected, you can also short — bet against its success.

The final profit or loss figure will be calculated based on total US takings at the box office over four weeks for blockbusters and 12 weeks for those with limited releases, after which they will be delisted from the exchange. Analysts are examining whether the concept could be brought to the UK.

by MDM Partners

The Great Britain pound experienced some volatile moves last week and by the weekend the currency declined against most other majors as the Parliamentary election draws near without signs of clear winner and as the households had the pessimistic outlook for their financial situation, causing the consumer confidence to worsen.

The data about improving situation in manufacturing and services industries, caused by the U.K. economy’s recovery, hadn’t brought enough confidence to the Britons. The outlook about the personal financial situation dropped to 2 points from 4 points the last month, while the consumer confidence fell from minus 15 to minus 16 this month. Some positive data from the housing sector, which somewhat boosted the sterling, hasn’t outweighed the consumer pessimism together with the signs of the slow economic recovery and, as a result, the U.K. currency dropped by the end of the week.

The opinion polls about the election don’t bring relief either. The forthcoming election may result in the stalemate and, while the three participating parties all pledged to reduce the budget deficit, which increased as much as 11.5 percent of GDP in 2009 and is considered the biggest among the Group of Seven nations, the parties disagree on the exact measures and the timing for them.

GBP/USD closed at 1.5294 Friday after opening at 1.5384 and reaching its weekly low of 1.5125. EUR/GBP closed at 0.8703 after opening at 0.8673. GBP/JPY closed at 143.65.

Today GBP continues to fall against it’s major rivals. Currently it trades at 1.5253 vs dollar and we are expecting decline to the support at 1.5000 by the mid of this week.

If you want to comment on the Great Britain pound’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.