In the next hours we expect appreciation of the CHF to 0.9835/45. Quotes are under 12 and 24 periods of MA, which signal for decrease. The last intersection of the both averages is signal for growth. MACD indicator is above the zero line and signal for Long. Stochastic indicator signal for shorts. Overall technical indicators submit mixed signals.
Today, at 15.30 for U.S. orders will be posted for durable goods and those without transport field in July. Expected to reach 3.0 percent respectively compared to -1.2% and 0.6% vs. -0.9%. At 17.00 will be exported prices of homes in June. Projected to increase by 0.1 percent compared to increases of 0.5 percent in May. They will be announced sales of new homes in July. Is forecast to reach 0.335 million to 0.330 million in June.
The movement today, according to my analysis, in breach of the 1.0315-1.0330 area of resistance, the dollar will aim to overcome the 1.0350-1.0370 area. If successful upturn will be strengthened at 1.0400-1.0425. In fall below the support of 1.0300-1.0280, the dollar will seek further support in the 1.0260-1.0240 area. In a breakthrough and it will continue downward movement towards 1.0220-1.0200.
Entry point: 1.0300
Position: SELL
Target: 1.0245
Stop loss: 1.0380
Today at 9:15 pm in Switzerland will be published trade balance in July. Expected to reach CHF 1.86 billion to 1.77 billion CHF in June. At 12.00 will be exported ZEW economic expectations index for August. It was 2.2 percentage points in July. 15.30 In the United States will be announced applications for unemployment benefits for the week to 14.08. Is forecast to decrease to 479,000 from 484,000 the previous seven days. At 17.00 will be posted on the Philadelphia FED index for August. Expected to rise to 7.2 points from 5.1 points in July. With him will be removed index of leading indicators in July. Projected to grow by 0.2 percent to 0.2 percent decline from in June.
The movement today, according to my analysis, in breach of the 1.0435-1.0450 area of resistance, the dollar will aim to overcome the 1.0475-1.0500 area. If successful upturn will be strengthened at 1.0530-1.0550. In fall below the support of 1.0430-1.0400, the dollar will seek further support in the 1.0385-1.0370 area. In a breakthrough and it will continue downward movement towards 1.0350-1.0325.
Entry point: 1.0450
Position: BUY
Target: 1.0550
Stop loss: 1.0390
Today, 10:15 am to Switzerland will be published Consumer Price Index in July. He was -0.4% for June and 0.5 percent in June 2009 to 15.30 in the USA will be published the following financial news: Personal income in June. Expected to increase by 0.2% compared to growth of 0.4 percent for May; Personal spending in June. Is projected to reach 0.1% to 0.2% a month ago; main index of consumer spending. The index was 0.2 percent for the previous month and 1.3% over the corresponding month a year earlier, consumer spending deflator in June. It was 1.9 percent in May, at 17.00: Future sales of existing homes in June. Projected to increase by 0.9% compared to 30.0 percent decline from the previous period; factory orders in June. Is forecast to remain unchanged compared to the decrease of 1.4 percent in May.
The movement today, according to my analysis, in breach of the 1.0400-1.0430 area of resistance, the dollar will aim to overcome the 1.0450-1.0475 area. If successful upturn will be strengthened at 1.0500-1.0520. In fall below the support of 1.0380-1.0360, the dollar will seek further support in the 1.0340-1.0325 area. In a breakthrough and it will continue downward movement towards 1.0300-1.0280.
Entry point: 1.0370
Position: Buy
Target: 1.0460
Stop loss: 1.0300
Today, at 9.00 for Switzerland will be exported to the consumption indicator of UBS in June. It was 1737 points in May. At 15:55 am the U.S. will be exported Red Book report for the week to 24.07. He said sales in large supermarkets had fallen by 0.6% over the previous seven days. At 16.00 will be released price index of housing S & P / Case Shiller in May. Expected to reach 3.8% to 3.8% for the previous period. At 17.00 will be published Consumer confidence in July. Projected to drop to 51.5 points from 52.9 points in June. With him will be removed FED index of Richmond in July. It is planned to reach 20 points versus 23 points a month ago.
The movement today, acording to my analysis, in breach of the 1.0500-1.0520 area of resistance, the dollar will aim to overcome the 1.0540-1.0560 area. If successful upturn will be strengthened at 1.0580-1.0600. In fall below the support of 1.0485-1.0465, the dollar will seek further support in the 1.0440-1.0420 area. In a breakthrough and it will continue downward movement towards 1.0400-1.0375.
Entry point 1.0500
Position: BUY
Target: 1.0550
Stop loss: 1.0450
Today at 10:15 am for Switzerland will be published index of producer and import prices in June. Expected on a monthly basis to increase by 0.2 percent. It was 0.3 percent in May and 1.4 percent in May 2009 to 15.30 in the U.S. will be exported trade balance in May. Deficit is projected to reach its 39,400 billion USD compared to 40.285 billion USD in April. At 15:55 pm report will be released Red List for the week to 10.07. He said sales in large supermarkets had fallen by 0.5% over the previous seven days. At 21.00, the balance will be published in the Federal budget in June. It is planned to reach -81.6 -135.9 billion USD billion USD compared to the previous period.
The movement today, according to my analysis , in break of the 1.0630-1.0650 resistance zone, the dollar will aim to overcome the 1.0675-1.0700 area. If successful upturn will be continue at 1.0730-1.0750. In fall below the support of 1.0615-1.0595, the dollar will search further support in the 1.0560-1.0535 area.
Entry point: 1.0620
Position: BUY
Target: 1.0700
Stop loss: 1.5950
Today, at 12.00 in Switzerland will be published ZEW economic expectations index for June. It was 40.5 points in May. At 14.00 in the United States will be exported Applications for mortgage loans to MBA for the Week ended on 11th of June it was -12.2% for the previous seven days. At 15.30 will be released index of producer prices for May. Expected to reach -0.5 percent on a monthly basis and 4.9% on year base. It was -0.1 percent for April and 5.5 percent in April 2009. Together with it will be published Main index of producer prices for May. Projected to grow by 0.1% monthly and 1.1% on an annual basis. The index was respectively 0.2% and 1.0% for the previous periods. At the same time will be exported initial residential in May. The forecast is to drop to 0.650 million from 0.670 million in April. With him will be announced for building permits in May. Expected to rise to 0.630 million from 0.610 million the previous period. At 16:15 pm will be released Industrial production for May which is projected to increase by 0.9% from growth of 0.8 percent in April. With it will be disclosed level of capacity utilization in May. The forecast is to reach 74.6 percent by 73.7 percent a month ago.
Short-term picture remains negative if there is a break of the 1.1315-1.1335 resistance zone, the USD will aim to overcome the 1.1355-1.1380 zone. If successful upturn will be strengthened at 1.1400-1.1425. In fall below the support of 1.1295-1.1275, the dollar will seek further support in the 1.1245-1.1220 zone. In a breakthrough it will continue downward movement towards 1.1200-1.1175. The current price is below the two Moving Averages, which indicates a downward movement in the currency pair.
Position: SELL
Entry point: 1.1302
Target: 1.1200
Stop-loss: 1.1380
The USD/CHF is approaching some targets after moving up quite dramatically over the last 2 trading days. This is consistent with the USD/INX and the EUR/USD. Looking at the Daily USD/CHF one possibility is that we are close to completing the third leg of a 5-wave move. If we assume that the 3rd leg isn’t complete yet, the next target takes us to 1.1067 before a correction sets in. By moving down to a 15-minute chart, we can also target the wave 3 of the smaller degree or time frame. 162% of wave 1 targets 1.1078, very close to the aforementioned 1.1067 target of the higher degree. Assuming we end this impulsive move around these levels, a correction will likely take us down to at least a 38.2% retracement level of 1.0987 and then we can target wave 5 of this sequence. A realistic range for this 5-wave sequence ranges between 1.1134 and 1.1225.
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